Book Summary: Has the West Lost It?- Kishore Mahbubani

 A New Order of Things-Domination Free World

For 200 years the West was on forefront of world history. The West had reached to the metaphorical Mount Everest of human intellectual development which West feel not to dislodge. If trend continues what would be the world and if not what will be the consequences. The book offers the wonders of the world that is bound to see in 2030s and beyond with calculated figures. This book isn’t aberrant from rest but definitely it is cunning and worth reading. Rather than bewildering you will feel smug after reading for three and half hours.

It compares the West and Rest especially Asia not leaving behind other countries. The Nordic achievements are also acknowledged for their noblest role in harmonizing the Nordic region. The comparison not only describes the achievements and priceless gifts of the West to the Rest that had brought revolution but also highlights on measures to have singular motive regardless of geo-political power. Off all, it offers better avenue and option for the West, supported by analytical intelligence analysis and advices, offered in friendship, from the Rest. In nutshell the book encourages the West and Rest to go for a dose of Machiavelli and that will determine where West will be.

The author presents about the natural aberration of world economies. The traditional belief of West as might is fading gradually. Until 1820 the largest economies were India and China. But that didn’t last. It was over taken by Europe followed by America. That was a historical aberration. The historical aberration are natural phenomenon and such fate is unstoppable even for the West. The Asian countries especially China, India and Indonesia are significantly emerging since their leaders are accountable for the people rather than people being accountable for the leader. The oriental despotism is replaced by democratic principles as it was gifted by West and even non-democratic country like China underwent a formidable change. The Asians have emulated and mastered western best practices. Does that mean West will be stagnant? Perhaps, if there is no introduction of new orders of things there will be definitely precipitous fall. With the introduction of G7 in 1975 by West the economic pie had not shrieked. The E7 economic pie had also shoot up. In 2015 the G7 contributed 31.5 per cent and the E7 36.3 per cent of global growth which signified the Asians are emerging. By 2050, the G7 share will slide to 20 per cent and that of the E7 will have risen to almost 50 per cent in purchasing power parity (PPP) terms. Even China’s explosive growth in recent decades was fuelled by exports to America.

The state of humankind is far better than it was in 16^th century in Italy. Sadly, the West remains remarkably ill-informed about the massive improvement in the human condition. Very closely humanity on the earth is on the verge of utopia as human condition has never been better than today. Today the world face little or no global violence, poverty has declined drastically, child labour has declined, infant mortality rates has reduced, homicide rates have fallen and average education and literacy rates are exploded all over the world. So, the world rejoice at such human revolution.

The Gifts of West to Rest

The western civilization is the cradle of modern 21^st century civilization after the collapse of Greco-Roman civilization. The priceless gift off all is the power of reasoning which had paved the path for the scientific, agricultural and technological revolutions which were necessary to solve insoluble human societal problems if not socio-economic and political problems and beyond personal problems through empirical proofs. Western science and technology have become empirical proof to solve seemingly insoluble problems. No person’s destiny is determined at birth as it was used to be in medieval. Those practices were credible to the Asians mind which had led to emulation and simultaneously seeped through the minds of Asians beginning with Meiji Restoration in 1968 under Tokugawa Shogunate. Though reasoning was given birth in Europe it had helped to overcome problems of floods and famines, pandemics and poverty even in Asia as said by Bertrand Russell that the world of pure reason knows no compromise, no practical limitations and no barrier. The Four Tigers were forerunners to learn and practice those idea. The west gift of reasoning had led to three revolutions in Asia which went unnoticed in Western Intellectual Circles. Aftermath of reasoning was characterized by political, governance and psychological revolution in Asia.

Political Revolution in Asia

Politically, a millennia Asian feudal propaganda was liberated from oriental despotism to democracy. Countries like India, Japan, South Korea and Seri Lanka underwent unprecedented changes including China, the non-democratic society. Leaders became accountable to their people not people to leader. People turned from being passive bystander to the agent of change. China under the Communist Party leader, Mao Zedong could not do justice. By contrast his successor, Deng Xiaoping revolutionized China through Four Modernization propaganda. Gradually other Asian countries like Myanmar, Philippines and Bangladesh revolutionized dictatorship regime where leaders became accountable to people. By large Asian leaders were accountable to their people and there is no question of improving the lives of people. This is one big gift that Western reasoning has made to Asia. The Asian success became a model for the African and North American countries. Kenya’s 2030 vision is inspired from Singapore and Malaysia model of economic development.  In 2015, Ethiopian President Mulatu Teshome claimed that, ‘Ethiopia is going through a national renaissance, following Korea’s model of development.

Governance Revolution in Asia

When Asians had seen virtue in governance it was paradox to West. Asians place pivotal role in rational good governance for transforming the societies. China, India and Indonesia had strong founding leaders in post-colonial era: Mao Zedong, Jawaharlal Nehru and Sukarno who had focused on politics which was badly needed during that time. Now, Xi Jinping, Narendra Modi and Jokowi are engaged in implementing secured public policies for long term economic prosperity. It was evident from Government at a Glance 2013 survey conducted by Gallup where India ranked second in trust in national government. Even OECD reported that ‘Trust in government in all BRIICS countries was higher. The rational governance is well conceptualized by the Asians and Africans. The Africans countries like Uganda and Rwanda achieved remarkable economic and social development under the leadership of President Yoweri Museveni and President Paul Kagame respectively.

No one had hope for Pakistan and Bangladesh to become that powerful economically and politically. As per World Bank, Pakistan underwent “staggering fall” from 2002-2014. At the same time the middle class population soared in Pakistan. Bangladesh was a basket case country after separating from Pakistan in 1971. Yet Bangladesh achieved an average rate of 5.5& growth over the past two decades. World Bank proclaimed that by 2021 Bangladesh will reach its goal of achieving ‘middle income’ status by 2021.

 

Psychological revolution in the minds of Asians

The people were convinced that they could control their lives and become better rather than believing their life at birth. The present generation is experiencing universal university education when their parents’ generation had zero university education. It will be quadruple in next 30 years. It’s with huge hope and belief that they can outshine far better than present civilization. Such enormous psychological revolution is a boost for better human condition. The West didn’t withstand with time with the rise of Asians. It was rather hampered by many suicidal wars.  

For centuries – the West dominated and conquered the entire planet with their superior military and technological prowess including the two previously greatest economic powers, China and India. There was no option but to bend before Western power. Such imperialistic and colonialist domination could have continued if not for two World Wars. The two World Wars were good enough to lesson about their best practices which led to political liberation with new visible flags flying over the world.

The intellectual liberation was again accidentally or coincidentally coincided with Western triumphalism (Cold War) which was even perilous. The West triumphed over Cold War without having to shoot a single bullet. That was sequel by the rise of China and India-the beginning of new history. Deng Xiaoping’s Four Modernizations policy of 1980s and Prime Minister Narasimha Rao’s opening of Indian economy in 1991 started to revolutionize two Asian giants that gave boost for India and China to joined China joined on 1/1/1995 and 9/11/2001 respectively which West lately realize the impact. USA just reacted by bobbing Iraq for attacking Twin Towers.

What factor converge West & Rest?

i.                    Travel Explosion

The trend of global explosion will continue to grow. People will vote by their feet to travel oversea and to return home. What does that signify? People are experiencing the most glorious period with increased in the per capital income. When author of the book, Kishore visited China in 1980, no Chinese tourist went overseas if not officials. But in 2015, there were 100 million Chinese tourist going for overseas. The West thought it was due to repressive and harsh communist regime. But at the same time 100 million Chinese tourist were returning home. People now vote by their feet to go oversea and return home since life has become much more comfortable with access to education and with minimal violence. So, a similar renaissance will occur in many societies as we become a world with universal access to information.

The ignorance of the West and strategic errors

After devastating WW II, the West was engaged to revive in formal glory. Europe worked hard to revive economies and America woke up and focused intensively on the new Soviet challenge. In 1950s and 60s both North America and Western Europe enjoyed healthy economic growth rates. But, surprisingly US was shocked when the Soviet Union became the first country to send a man into outer space. Then US became the first country to land a man on the moon in 1969. With the collapse of Soviet Union in 1991, the sense of superiority boosted in the West. The West enjoyed the fortune by remaining complacent

The US invaded Iraq as a tit for tat for attacking Twin Towers of the World Trade Center by an Islamic militant, Osama bin Laden. If not, it was to show American hubris and strategic incompetence to Rest. But that was folly. The world strong secular leader, Saddam Hussein was killed who was also against Osama. The lives of Muslims were lost to war which didn’t matter to West. The ill treatment of Islamic societies was a major blunder. The same has repeated in Afghanistan in 2021.

History will remember Gorbachev for dissolution of Soviet empire which was an unimaginable geopolitical gift to the West, especially America without having to shot even a single bullet with the breaking of Berlin Wall. Rather than having magnanimous as what Churchill said: “In Defeat, Defiance; In Victory, Magnanimity; and in Peace, Good Will” the West expanded NATO by admitting new memberships; Czech Republic, Hungary, Poland, Bulgaria, Estonia, Latvia, Lithuania, Romania and Slovakia who were earlier in Warsaw Pact. When Russia was least threatening, the US provoke Russia and lad foundation to rise Putin regime. The political drift by Putin in Georgia in 2003, Crimea in 2019 and Ukraine in 2021.

What West has to Know

The Asian societies will be constantly and significantly improve with increase in education enrolment. There is sharp rise in middle class contributed in diminishing poverty gradually. The countries in Latin America and Africa are learning from Asian societies. Kenya has launched Vision 2030 in 2008. ASEAN governments are functional and thrusting Southeast Asia forward to become the fourth-largest economic area in the world by 2050.

ASEAN is the replica of European Union in Asia. Southeast Asia will become an oasis of peace and prosperity. When the West failed to manage the transition of absolute military rule in Syria, ASEAN did the same successfully in Myanmar. The Nordic model needs to be universalized for global balance between economic growth and social harmony. The US is known for education and entrepreneurship for which the Rest will copy the best practices. Chinese university presidents regularly visit American campuses to learn from them.

New Strategy: A better World for American, Europeans and to Rest: 3Ms-Minimalist, Multilateral and Machiavellian

i.                    Minimalist:

The West was once powerful in any form in 19^th & 20^th century. With that the West had trampled everywhere. In 21^st century as West recedes, the Rest especially Africans and Asians would rather welcome more restrained Western roles. The West tried to bulldoze the Islamic world; the case of Osama and creation of Al-Qaeda to fight against Russia in Afghanistan and recent case of Abu Ibrahim al-Hashimi al-Qurayshi, the head of ISIS in Syria. So, America should enhance its diplomatic engagement and work with Europe to find geopolitically wise diplomatic solutions.

ii.                  Multilateral;

With every new crisis the world requires coordinated global actions. The financial crisis (2008–9), the Ebola outbreak (2014–16), the Climate Change Summit in Paris (2015), the terrorist attacks in leading capitals (2017), the COVID pandemic (2019) had taught the world leaders about the power of multilateral magnitude. There is no other space better the Earth for human survival. The only royal path to make multilateral possible is through global governance not regional or unilateral governance. The global parliament (UNGA) should be enhanced and should not become puppets and de facto of any singular interest. The Iraq invasion during the time of father President Bush in 1991 was successful. But the second invasion during the time of son president Bush was unsuccessful. The former was successful since father Bush obtained support from UN and in later case, the whole world including China and Russia opposed the invasion. If there is re-legitimization of the UN, it is simple step move for multilateral governance.

iii.                Machiavellian leader

The leader should be accountable to people and need altruism with pragmatic morals over idealistic or dogmatic ones. There should me more strategic cunning to protect its long-term interests. The legendary Chinese strategist Sun Tzu adage, ‘Know thy self, know thy enemy. A thousand battles, a thousand victories’ which is still relevant in today’s world.

The worst part of the world:

The powerful countries failing to recognize that we belong to a single human tribe living together on a fragile little planet. During the UN General Assembly session condemning Russia for unprovoked attack, 141 states vote in favour of the motion, five against and 35 abstentions. Though the motion was in favour, there were still 40 countries still not sure of what happening. So, Kishore said; “We have captains and crews taking care of each cabin, we have no captain or crew taking care of the whole boat.”

Need to strengthen multilateral institutions of global governance, like the UN, the IMF, the World Bank and the WHO to take care of common global challenges. The recent case of Trump withdrawing US membership from WHO.

The continuity of the noble task for noble cause: Obama supported for The Paris Agreement. Trump shifted focus on nuclear arm race didn’t favour the battle against climate change. And again Biden focuses on The Paris Agreement.

The West on Autopilot: Europe and America Do Not Face the Same Challenges

The West is challenged by different strategic challenges. For US, it is China & Russia. For Europe, it is Islamic society. The wise move is to focus in their own strategic challenge. Europe was never threatened by Russia after Post Cold War and Europe can meddle with Putin. China’s Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles aren’t a threat for Europe. Instead China’s economic development is good for Europe’s interests.

During Cold War Soviet thought US was military competitor. Until the collapse of Soviet economy, Soviet Union didn’t realized US was economic competitor. And US faces same with China. For America, China is military competitor, not an economic competitor. But China, US is an economic competitor not a military competitor. The deployment of armed forces in East Asia and reforming of Asia Pacific into Indo Pacific is the biggest mistake that America made. The contemporary world demands more brain than brawn.

A More Dangerous World

It’s not always good to seek refuge and believe in democracy as West do for economic prosperity. It’s wrong on West to have total blind faith on democracy. The living example is cited on China’s economy. China success in her economy isn’t credited on democracy.

The 2^nd evidence was Turkey wasn’t given membership for supporting President Erdoğan in 2017 to vote in favour of constitutional changes to entrench his power in Europe. Whereas other countries like Austria, Sweden, Poland, Finland and many more who applied for EU membership in later period were given membership to EU. The Europeans kept Turkey out and allowed Turks in Europe to vote which was the most deplorable on European part. It would have been wiser to keep Turks out and admit Turkey into the EU so that jobs generated inside Turkey would have kept Turks at home.

The other blunder was when EU launched the Common Agricultural Policy (CAP) in 1962. It benefited a few European farmers but impoverished millions of African farmers, especially in North Africa. Thus, millions of Africans tried to get into Europe illegally since Europe lost its strategic common sense. By not exporting jobs to Africa, it designed policies that would inevitably import Africans into Europe.

The World Rest will have in next few decades; Economic Forecast as per Kishore;

In 1950, the American and European (UK, France and Germany) share of World GDP was 43 per cent.  By 2050, it will have shrunk to 24 per cent. By 2050, Europe’s share will have shrunk to 7 per cent, while Africa’s will have exploded to 39 per cent.

As per Swedish physician and epidemiologist as documented by Hans Rosling in 1950, Europe’s share of the world’s population was 22 per cent, while Africa’s was 9 per cent. If Europe continues on autopilot, or sinks into despair or racially and religiously motivated ideological approaches to declining power in population shifts, this will be an act of collective suicide. It will also be hugely damaging for the Rest, as Europe and America flail around

Take Away Message:

• The 21^st century leaders need to be Machiavellian leader where the welfare of their subordinate places the first priority and choose pragmatic morals over idealistic or dogmatic ones.
• The West should adopt various Western best practices globally to create a more peaceful and prosperous planet rather than being monopoly so that the West can live in happily. 
• The West can no longer impose its power and ideas in long run with same hegemonic propaganda